The Failure of Leadership and its Legacy: The Outbreak of World War One

Royal Ulster Rifles

A failure of leadership can lead to a legacy profound in its ramifications and consequences as much as strong, effective leadership. The perfect example of this is the outbreak of World War 1 and a legacy which affects us to this very day.

“I heard it started when a bloke called Archie Duke shot an ostrich because he was hungry.” These are the words of the dim-witted character Private Baldrick in the 1980s’ BBC comedy satire on World War 1, Blackadder Goes Forth. He is immediately corrected by his commanding officer, the shrewd Captain Blackadder, who informs him that the war started when the Archduke of Austria-Hungary was shot. The captain goes on to explain about the alliance system which dragged all Europe into a war, but he ends up with a curious comment. He says that the main reason for the war was that it was just too much effort to stop it. 1 This implies some sort of failure of leadership.

1. Blackadder Goes Forth, Episode 6, BBC TV, 1989.

Other sources also give a curious insight into the causes of the war. The English Queen, Queen Mary, commented, “God grant that we not have a European war thrust upon us and for such a stupid reason too.” 2 Captain Liddell-Hart in his account of the First World War states that it took just five days to detonate the peace of Europe. 3 John Keegan in his book claims the conflict was totally unnecessary as good sense shown by the leaders could have broken the train of events at any point in the five weeks prior to its outbreak.4 Indeed he states, “War came out of a cloudless sky to populations that knew nothing about it.”5

The outbreak of World War 1 has been traditionally ascribed to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, by Slav nationalists. When Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia, a whole series of alliances were called in which brought together the Central Powers, Germany and Austria, to face Russia, France, and later Great Britain, on the side of Serbia.

2. The Great War, Episode 2, For Such a Stupid Reason Too, BBC TV, 1964.
3. Captain B.H. Liddell Hart, The Real War 1914-1918, London, 1930, p. 1.
4. John Keegan, The First World War, London, 1998, p. 3.
5. Keegan, First World War, p. 9.

MANIA6 is popular on the Internet as an acronym to explain the causes of the war. MANIA stands for Militarism, Alliances, Nationalism, Imperialism, and Assassination. I intend to show that it was the failure of leadership and not MANIA which was the real cause of World War 1.

Militarism: In 1914 the most powerful country economically in Europe was Germany. 7 It was also the most militaristic. The German Army was the most powerful military organisation in the world.8 Kaiser Wilhelm II ruled Germany. He appointed both the top German general, Moltke, and the chancellor, Bethmann-Hollweg. Germany needed to be strong because they feared Russia. Russia and France were equally worried about Germany’s military strength and in response they built up huge armies of their own. Yet the very size of these armies seemed to promise security. So possessing vast armies did not encourage war.

6. WWW.Slideshare.net MANIA.
7. The Great War, Episode 1, On the Idle Hill of Summer, BBC TV, 1964.
8. The Great War, Episode 1.

Alliances: Germany’s neighbours watched her progress with alarm. Threatened by German expansion, France entered into alliances with Russia and Great Britain. Fearing encirclement, Germany made alliances with Austria-Hungary and Italy. However, when war did break out, it was only Germany’s refusal to respect the neutrality of Belgium which brought Britain into the war, and Italy decided to remain neutral. In addition, it was Germany’s inflexible Schlieffen Plan which caused the invasion of France.

Nationalism: There were two types of nationalism at this time, pride in one’s achievements as a country, and the desire of minorities in the Austro-Hungarian Empire to forge a new country of their own. For national pride, Germany desired an overseas empire. Meanwhile, in the Balkans, Slav nationalists ruled by Austria wanted a Slav state. The latter led to the ongoing conflict between Austria and Serbia, while the former led to imperialism. Neither led to a global war.

Imperialism: Germany’s imperial ambitions led to the rivalry with the British and both sides built up their navies, but it did not lead to war. Neither did rivalry between Germany and France in Africa.

The last letter of the acronym MANIA stands for Assassination. On June 28th, 1914, the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, was shot dead by a Serbian nationalist named Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo, Bosnia. This was the event that would put the nations of Europe on the road to war. However, it shouldn’t have. Previous tensions in the Balkans were sorted out by the combination of Germany, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary, and Great Britain, thus preventing a general war. The same state of affairs should have existed in 1914. None of the MANIA arguments explains why war broke out in 1914. That leaves one other alternative, the failure of leadership. The main culprits were the German Kaiser, his chancellor Bethmann-Hollweg, his army commander Moltke, the Austrian foreign minister Berchtold, and the Russian Tsar. During the Cold War in the second half of the 20th century, the term Brinkmanship was coined whereby one side would push events to the brink of war to gain prestige over the other. It was a dangerous game and it nearly led to World War 3 over the Cuban Missile Crisis. This high risk politics was being played out in the Balkans in 1914, as Austria-Hungary, supported by Germany, competed to alter the balance of power in their favour against Russia and Serbia without recourse to a general war. It was all about prestige. However the game went horribly wrong and unleashed forces which the leaders were incapable of stopping. It was a series of mistakes by the leaders of various European countries which would lead to World War 1. Austria was determined to punish Serbia for the assassination of the Archduke, but fearing Russian support for Serbia, it lacked the courage to act on its own. Austria wanted German assurances.

MISTAKE 1. Delay: It took a whole month before war was declared by Austria on Serbia. If Austria had attacked immediately, this would probably have remained a local war between Austria and Serbia. 9 Russia had not responded in previous years to help the Slav states Serbia and Bulgaria when they were threatened.

9. Keegan, First World War, p. 52.

British and German wounded

MISTAKE 2. The Blank Check: 10 On July 5, the Kaiser told the Austrians that they could rely on Germany’s full support, even against Russia. Germany was so sure that Russia would not intervene that no precautionary measures were taken. The Kaiser merely insisted that Austria should come to a firm resolution on what it wanted to do. 11 For the next few weeks the Austrians worked on their demands intended to humiliate Serbia. They were presented to Serbia on July 23rd. They contained several very serious demands and gave the Serbians only 48 hours to reply or it would result in war. On July 24th Germany officially declared support for Austria’s demands saying that they were moderate and proper. It then added a threat, MISTAKE 3, that any interference by any other powers would be followed by incalculable consequences. In Britain, this German statement caused shock, in Russia indignation. This was brinkmanship 1914 style. Serbia appealed to Russia for help.

10. Liddell Hart, The Real War, p. 24.
11. Keegan, First World War, p. 54.

On July 25th, with time running out, it seemed that Serbia was going to agree to all the demands. Austria appeared to have won and regained her prestige, a victory for German brinkmanship.

MISTAKE 4. Word arrived from Russia that the Tsar might intervene after all on Serbia’s side with the news that Russia had announced a preliminary period to war. This hardened Serbia’s attitude and they rejected two of Austria’s demands.12

MISTAKE 5. France, informed of Russia’s military measures, supported her to attain the highest possible state of readiness.

A curious two-day intermission now takes place as Serbia mobilises and Russia called up its youngest reservists. With the Kaiser on his summer cruise, Bethmann-Hollweg instructed the German ambassadors in London and Paris that the military measures taken by Russia could be judged threatening. This compelled Britain and France to try to restrain Russia.

12. Keegan, First World War, p. 58.

In Russia, the German ambassador told the Russians that unless military measures were discontinued, this would force Germany to mobilise which would mean war. More brinkmanship. On July 27, Russia proposed direct talks with Austria to lessen the Serbian demands. MISTAKE 6. With the Kaiser still at sea at this crucial juncture, Germany did nothing to encourage Austria to talk to Russia. MISTAKE 7. When Berchtold, the Austrian foreign minister, learned of the British attempt to convene a four-party conference to settle the conflict, he informed Germany that war would be declared on Serbia the next day. This is what Berchtold always wanted, war not mediation. Obviously he had not heard of brinkmanship. The Blank Check was cashed. July 28th. The five days of madness starts now. MISTAKE 8. Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. The Kaiser returned home from his cruise and advised Austria to enter into mediation with Russia. Brinkmanship had been successful and Germany did not want to be responsible for a European war. But it was too late. War had already been declared. The Kaiser and Bethmann-Hollweg now went into panic mode. 13 They had lost control of the situation. The German High Command had taken over control.14

MISTAKE 9, July 29th, Russia mobilised. The fear of being caught at a disadvantage with your rivals mobilising before you affected thinking of army leaders over the next few days.15 Germany now felt threatened. A European war was now a real possibility. The Kaiser telegraphed the Tsar and begged him to draw back. This so called Willy-Nicky Correspondence16 acknowledged that mobilisation could lead to events slipping out of their control. It seemed to work, the Tsar canceled general mobilisation. On July 30, with the Kaiser and his chancellor trying to persuade the Austrians to limit their attack on Serbia and convince the Russians it was only a local war, the generals were worried that even a partial mobilisation in Russia would put Germany at a disadvantage.

13. The Great War, Episode 2.
14. Liddell Hart, The Real War, p. 33.
15. The Great War, Episode 2.
16. Wikipedia.org, Willy-Nicky Correspondence.

MISTAKE 10. Moltke now exceeded his powers and informed Austria if they mobilised now against Russia, Germany would do the same. This prompted the Austrian comment, “How odd! Who runs the German government, Bethmann or Moltke?” 17

MISTAKE 11. The Russian army leaders had been working on the dithering Tsar and fear of being at a disadvantage led him to proclaim full Russian mobilisation. The generals were now making the decisions in both Germany and Russia. By the afternoon of Friday 31st, we have come to the high point of the crisis which had begun 34 days earlier in Sarajevo.18 Russia and Austria had mobilised. Germany now entered a period preliminary to war.

MISTAKE 12. Germany sent an ultimatum to Russia to halt military operations within 12 hours or its war. Germany asked France if she would remain neutral in a war between Russia and Germany.

17. Keegan, First World War, p. 64.
18. Keegan, First World War, p. 66.

Russian troops

MISTAKE 13. Unfortunately, the French were told that their mobilisation would mean war. The Kaiser and his chancellor still continued to send telegrams hoping that Austria and Russia could be brought to negotiate. However, Germany was now the German High Command and not the Kaiser. Now, only Russia’s acceptance of the German ultimatum or Germany backing down, both blows to national prestige, could prevent a general European war. On August 1, Germany declared war on Russia and mobilised. France now had to mobilize or lose the advantage. With the declaration of war and mobilisation, the war plans of the respective countries now kicked into action.

MISTAKE 14. The German war plan was the Schlieffen Plan which involved 1.2 million men marching against France through Belgium and defeating her within 40 days before switching the troops to face the Russians. War by timetable had started. Nothing or nobody could stop it. The Kaiser told Moltke to cancel the Schlieffen Plan and direct the army eastwards. Moltke was aghast and said it could not be carried out.19 Once planned, the war plan could not possibly be changed. The Kaiser had lost control of the situation and could not control his own military machine. Indeed, nobody seemed to be able to. The words of Captain Blackadder seem to have come true. It was just too much effort to stop it.20 On August 3rd, Germany declared war on France, and when the Germans ignored the British ultimatum on the 4th of August to vacate Belgian territory, Great Britain entered the war. In the words of the British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey, “The lamps are going out all over Europe. I don’t think we will see them lit again in our lifetime.”21

19. Liddell Hart, The Real War, p. 34.
20. Blackadder, Episode 6.
21. The Great War, Episode 2.

World War 1 had begun. What was the legacy of the failure of leadership? It was a world war which claimed ten million lives and tortured the emotional lives of millions of others. It destroyed four empires, the German, Russian, Austro-Hungarian, and Ottoman. It redrew the maps of Europe and the Middle East. The Europe of today is very similar to that of 1919. Today’s problems in the Middle East are a direct legacy of the failure of leadership which led to World War 1. The modern day countries of the Middle East were carved out of the Ottoman Empire with little regard for tribal ties, Muslim Sunni/Shia religious rivalries, and the establishment of Zionism in Palestine.

In Europe, two new political ideologies emerged, communism in Russia, and fascism in Germany, both totalitarian regimes. It gave rise to the cult of the personality embodied in Joseph Stalin and Adolf Hitler. It gave rise to the emergence of the United States as a world power for the first time. The ultimate legacy of the failure of leadership in 1914 was World War 2. There would have been no World War 2 without World War 1.

War technology was an obvious legacy with the development of tanks, planes, submarines, barbed wire, and poisonous gas. Conscription for military service of all men of military age is a product of World War 1, as is post-traumatic stress disorder (shell shock).

Paradoxically, some good things did come out of this failure of leadership. 22 The legacy was not totally bad. Pacifism, the organised campaign against war, developed from this time. Trade Union movements grew in strength protecting workers and guaranteeing them good pay and working conditions. Modern surgery is a legacy of World War 1 with the innovation of skin grafts and blood banks. Finally, women’s emancipation in Europe and America, giving women the vote, is a direct legacy of this failure of leadership. Many causes are claimed as to the outbreak of World War 1. Undoubtedly all had some bearing, one way or the other, on this war and its ramifications for posterity. However, I contend that had the leaders of those European countries not lost control of the situation in the five days of madness at the end of July 1914, we would be living, for better or worse, in a far different world today.

22. www.theguardian.com/World /2014/Jan/15/First World War.